By Dr Charles Kambanda
I would start with analyzing why so many things have pricked Kagame’s usually insane ego in the recent past. Some of the major things/events I would consider are:
(1) Kagame was smoked from DRC; his special forces, the so-called M23, have since suffered terrible defeat whenever they attempt to attack DRC and/or Burundi.
(2) Burundi has defied and actually defeated Kagame and his special force.
(3) Many public servants have gone for months without pay; the economy is in pieces which makes Kagame concerned about what the donors might do in reaction to what he does in Rwanda. Kagame knows there are consequences to his acts in the different external environment he’s confronted with.
( 4) The UK government forced him to release Mrs. Uwamahoro Violet, a UK citizen Kagame had kidnapped and later charged with ” treason” among other charges.
We clearly see two different Kagames i.e. the “almighty” untouchable Kagame prior to 2013 and the increasingly ” manageable” Kagame, thereafter.
There are many factors to explain why it can’t be business as usual for Kagame and his junta; Kagame has become a political liability to his western and local supporters and/or morale boosters for different reasons:
a) It’s public knowledge now that Kagame committed and/or continues to commit horrific crimes, including possibly genocide.
(b) Kagame’s name has become synonymous with gross violation of human rights; making Kagame probably one of the worst dictators in modern and contemporary time.
( c) Kagame maneuvered the constitution to make himself a life president.
(d) Throwing to jail, exiling and/or assassinating his bush war comrades especially his fellow Tutsi has fractured his Tutsi support, leaving him extremely vulnerable and confused; casting doubt even among his westerner backers on the type of person Kagame is.
I know for a fact that:
( i) Kagame counted more on western backers than regional or even internal alliances.
(ii) Kagame depended a lot on the Clinton dynasty, politically and financially. When the Clintons hit the bottom rock, Kagame junta lost balance economically and politically.
(iii) It’s an open secret that Kagame’s position as a middleman in DRC illegal business made him grow wings politically and economically.
Meanwhile, what used to be Kagame and his junta secrets is all out there for the world to see, thanks to RPF/A former “insiders ” who spill the beans everyday. There is more information about Kagame’s true colors. The “myth ” Kagame had ring fenced himself with has been destroyed; his mask fell off . There is uncontrollably growing dissent and opposition within the country.
It’s my humble submission that Diane Rwigara’s ” mysterious” appearance is a logical consequence of so many events and/or factors. I am sure Kagame is wondering how he’s being subdued. Historically, that’s how dictatorships go over the cliff.
Is Kagame finally finished? Well, not yet. However, the total sum of these events and others to come could deal him a terrible blow, if not a knockout all together.