FDLR offensive: Partly in response to some of you who asked for my elucidation on why I think the FDLR offensive is a psychological operation and partly to curtail this propaganda going on in some mainstream news media as well as gutter press; my take that the offensive is a psy-op is based on:
1, The FARDC has no interest whatsoever in eliminating the FDLR.
2, Even if the FARDC had interest, they lack the capacity to effectively neutralize the FDLR.
3, More important than the two points above, the FARDC has a vested interest in FDLR.
(A), Kinshasa rests on the sympathy and goodwill of both Tanzania and South Africa in the present geo-political dispensation in that region.
(B), Tanzania and South Africa have openly and privately demonstrated that FDLR is not a threat to be eliminated by arms, but by dialogue.
(C), As a confirmation to this, South Africa and Tanzania through the UN Intervention Brigade refused to be part of the offensive. Consequently, the two alleged human rights violators commanding the offensive was a lee-way to give the FIB a scape-goat.
4, The much publicized raids on FDLR are simply psy-ops. For instance, FARDC reported last week that they have handed over 1000 FDLR to MONUSCO and that MONUSCO has handed them over to Rwanda. To this, Jean Sayinzoga, Rwanda’s demobilization head, dismissed with satiated fury.
5, Some pseudo-attacks may be reported to be carried out by the FARDC with a view to curtail Rwanda’s pressure on disarming the FDLR but the FDLR remains intact.
6. Summing it all, this is a manifestation of Paul Kagame’s another (after another) diplomatic failure and isolation.
Timeline goes this way:
1, Kagame becomes a liability rather than an asset in DRC conflict economics.
2, His (and Museveni’s) M23 is smoked out by Tanzania and SA forces.
3, Kigali mounts pressure that FIB should deal with FDLR after dismissing Jakaya Kikwete’s advice to dialogue with them.
4, The Angolan meet flops (intentionally) to which Kigali (un-aware that it was a trap), thanked Angola for.
5. Out of a friendly advice, Kabila appoints the two alleged human rights violators to head the offensive to which FIB reacted with non-cooperation (as it was supposed to be anyway).
Finally, the idea that RDF is involved in hunting down the FDLR in collaboration with FARDC, is a complete illusion.
Source: Friends of Reason