The last ordinary HoS meeting of the East African community exposed several realities about the community. Well, matter of factly, the community is seen falling headlong. I have to state this as the very outset, otherwise, what I am going to say will lead in semantic redundancy. The following observations were serene:-
1) We witnessed a politicking clearly underhanded. The fast-tracking of the integration especially enrolling South Sudan in the brotherhood was too soon and ill advised. It was ad hoc!
2) Uganda and Rwanda played foal deliberately and under bad intention! Conniving to have South Sudan aboard was intended to have their foster child around and thus use him when it comes to having majority vote on matters. South Sudan is too young and less prepared to align to integration politics! The knowledge that made Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda decide to take her. They need a pawn.
3) The growing influence of Magufuli’s populist politics against the dwindling stature of Museveni and Kagame’s strongmanship means that the EAC is facing divergent personalities. The result will be dire.
4) Kagame, once too self-confident, had been replaced by another person I am still finding to place. He looked shrank, hopeless and inconfident. I have reviewed the clips over and over I still don’t see the usual aura that carries him.
5) With Benjamin Mkapa entering the theater as far as the Burundi crisis is concerned, one needs to know that:
a) that is the man who groomed Magufuli and gave him place in the Tanzanian politics. Twenty years later, when Lowasa was almost destroying CCM (2015), it was Mkapa who came and placed his boy at the forefront. Many of us do not know that Magufuli’s presidency owes too much from Mkapa’s political machinery.
b) that in 1997 when Mkapa was two years in the presidency, three years after Ndadaye Melchior had been assassinated, is when Tanzania took up a position to leash the conflict. That time, CNDD grew stronger and prominent it was later to be where it is. Many agree that it was Mkapa’s gov that armtwisted Buyoya and supplied the CNDD.
c) is it needed to say that by 2005 when CNDD secured political credentials and later won votes in Burundi, Mkapa had been the person at their back? Tanzania ony used to say it ws tired of Burundi refugees.
d) in the time when Tanzania is under Mkapa’s brain child and likewise when Burundi is ruled by a president propagated by a Mkapa regime – Mkapa is brought to a role to arbitrate Burundi. I reserve my meaning to those who can envision.
6) the EAC is obviously dying. Time is up for conflicts to skyrocket, Kenya will make a lot of proceeds, Museveni will seek to use Rwanda and South Sudan to lead te block and then tension. Tanzania will end up pulling Burundi ti the SADC and the game will be over.
Theogene Karenzi
