Accused with undoubted evidence to support the Tutsi rebels of the M23 with infantry, weapons and ammunition, Rwanda held its ground and proved to be invincible given that it kept the villages it has conquered in the east of this vast country without great resistance to the point of daring to install a ground -to-air anti-missile device there, a shield against attacks by drones and fighter planes from the DRC which were causing hundreds of victims among its soldiers deployed there behind the M23 label. President Kagame boasted about it recently during the national dialogue, showering his Congolese and Burundian counterparts with barbaric insults and comparing them to deflatable balloons. However, with the arrival of troops from the SADC, Southern African Development Community made up of South African contingents; Tanzanians and Malawians, Rwanda no longer seems to easily threaten the FARDC; as proof, its forces no longer hold conquered villages for long; on the other hand, they are expelled by FARDC and SADC forces in their counter attacks. Fearing that its defeats risk being exported to its territory, this country causing trouble in the sub-region under the signature of its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Biruta Vincent wrote to the president of the UN Security Council on February 12, 2024 demanding the withdrawal of SADC forces. Throughout the present lines, I intend to analyze the ins and outs of this Rwandan diplomatic approach which borders on an unpromising future for Rwanda and its military invaders of the DRC.
1.Facts
The government of Rwanda has officially expressed concerns to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) regarding cooperation between Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces and various armed factions, including Rwandan genocidal forces. (FDLR and its dissident groups), perceived as a threat to the stability of Rwanda. This concern was communicated in a document submitted by the Rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Dr. Vincent Biruta, through the Permanent Mission of Rwanda to the United Nations to Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, the president of the United Nations Security Council, February 13, 2024. Dr. Biruta highlighted the alliance between SADC forces and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), warning that such a partnership could exacerbate the conflict in the region and increase hostilities. He highlighted the presence of more than 260 armed groups within the DRC and accused SADC forces of selectively supporting the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) alongside the Burundian Forces (FDNB), European mercenaries, Rwandan genocidal forces (FDLR and its splinter groups), and various ideologically and ethnically motivated local armed groups, known as Wazalendo. These groups, he noted, are engaged in the ethnic cleansing of Congolese Tutsi, escalating the situation to levels reminiscent of the precursors to the genocide perpetrated against the Tutsi in Rwanda in 1994. Dr. Biruta also addressed joint operations between the SADC-led mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC) and these “negative groups” against the M23 forces, in defiance of the recommendations resulting from the Nairobi process led by the East African Community (EAC) and the Luanda initiative led by Angola.
He expressed concern over public statements by the presidents of the DRC and Burundi supporting a change of power in Rwanda and increasing ethnic tensions in the region. The minister further criticized the hyper-militarization of eastern DRC and potential UN support for the coalition fueling the escalation of the conflict, despite ongoing ethnic violence and aggressive rhetoric from regional leaders. He conveyed concerns about the United Nations Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO) potentially supporting SADC, Burundi and FDLR forces, which he said could implicate the UN in the wrong approach aligning with efforts perceived to target Congolese Tutsi and destabilize Rwanda. Dr. Biruta criticized the international community for ignoring the root causes of the conflict, including support for Rwandan genocidal forces in eastern DRC, the DRC government’s refusal to address the grievances of Congolese Rwandophones, particularly of the Tutsi, and the failure to repatriate Congolese refugees. He argued that UN support for the FARDC and its allies would further encourage a military approach rather than a peaceful resolution to the crisis. Highlighting risks of exacerbation of the long-standing crisis in eastern DRC, including the potential for ethnic conflict and regional war, Dr. Biruta urged the UNSC to reconsider its position on logistical and operational support to the coalition led by the FARDC. He called for a peaceful resolution through the Nairobi and Luanda processes and affirmed Rwanda’s commitment to contributing to peace in eastern DRC. Nonetheless, he warned that Rwanda would continue to take preventive and defensive measures against the declared intention of the presidents of the DRC and Burundi to overthrow the government of Rwanda and the threat posed by Rwandan genocidal forces operating in eastern Rwanda. the DRC.
2.Analysis: Rwanda undue interferences
A series of factors unmask Rwanda as to its active and direct role in the insecurity ravaging the DRC, going so far as to be caught in its own trap.
1) The motive of the war
Birds of a feather flock together! Says a British maxim the equivalent of the Kinyarwanda version “ibisa barasabirana”.
During the preparation of the invasion of Rwanda in Kampala which was launched in 1990, the representatives of the Tutsi refugees then scattered across the world agreed to seize Rwanda but also other neighboring countries which were not yet won in the great Hima empire project. Burundi was not a problem because then ruled by a Tutsi Major Pierre Buyoya and when the Hutu Melchior Ndadaye ousted him in elections in 1993, they rushed to assassinate and mutilate his body in just three months; Kagame also went to Bujumbura to recover his genitals, a symbol of victory but also an amulet to ensure the domination of the Hamite (Tutsi) over the Bantu (Hutu). The then Zaire should pass to the Banyamulenge and Bagogwe and this is what they did in 2001 when Kabila Joseph Rwandan Tutsi adopted by Mzee Laurent Désiré Kabila occupied power for 18 years after getting rid of the latter. Tanzania should follow with the Tutsi already integrated into the country’s senior administration and the army. In this vein, they supported Edward Lowassa based on his Hamite origin but this failed in the face of the CCM party established for a long time in the country. What about the current crisis in eastern DRC? The motive remains despite the fact that power has passed to the Bantus as political-military opportunities are favorable to Rwanda’s expansionist desires. Indeed, the DRC army is infiltrated by the presence of around a hundred senior Tutsi officers and generals who only deliver strategic information to Rwandan intelligence and thus the return of the Hamites to power is still possible. To this end, Kagame’s Rwanda was able to take advantage of the presence of former Tutsi refugees who lived in the east of the DRC and who returned with the victory of the RPF in 1994: making them refugees on the Rwandan soil; using its RDF soldiers born from these former refugees, including at their head generals Ntaganda Jean Bosco; Nkunda Laurent; Makenga Sultan who were part of the Rwandan patriotic army during the capture of the country by the RPF and thus find the legitimate cause to reconquer “their” country, the DRC, and thus be able to continue to exploit the resources of this great country with its very rich subsoil in a sustainable way. This is, in a few words, the motive for this Rwandan-Congolese war.
2)A lie that no longer holds
Rwanda claims that the FARDC is supported by the FDLR in their fight against the RDF-M23 and that ipso facto any military support should be refused to them and uses this as the basis to demand that the SADC be able to leave the region. In reality, Rwandan Army, RDF, integrated many former FDLR whom it has also redeployed on the ground in the DRC.
Examples are legion: the current Minister of Defense, General Marizamunda Juvénal and his wife Colonel Séraphine Nyirasafari are ex-Far reintegrated into the RDF, Mr. Gasana Alfred Minister of the Interior had fled at Tingi-tingi camp in DRC and is a survivor of the massacres perpetrated by the RDF in the DRC in 1996 and his parents had already been assassinated in revenge operations organized in the country after the RPF victory; better still, an RDF commander nicknamed Cobra operating in the east of the DRC on the M23 side is a former FAR officer; Brigadier General J. Chrysostome Ngendahimana, current deputy commander of the Nyakinama military academy, is an ex-FAR; the same goes for retired colonel Ndamage Donat, currently ambassador to Mozambique; Major General Murasira Albert, current Minister of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs, is an ex-Far, to name just a few. On the contrary, the real reason behind this hypocritical claim is the fear that the deployment of South African forces, one of the most powerful armies in Africa, could cause a reversal of the situation on the ground; by ousting the Rwandan troops whose defeat and withdrawal into their country would facilitate the massive entry of their adversaries in terms of reprisals.
3) A media war
When we browse Twitter and YouTube, the pro-FARDC and the pro-M23-RDF exchange fanatical lies going so far as to declare a certain general dead who the next day finds himself alive making declarations as if resurrected; increasing tenfold or inventing the number of soldiers who died on the front; in short, we sadly miss reliable media on the war which prevail in the eastern part of the DRC. So who to trust? Who to be wary of?
Fortunately, on the Rwandan side, we have access to information from reliable sources from the Rwandan soldiers who fight on the ground in the DRC and return to be replaced by others in this mission. It is these, colleagues, brothers, neighbors or friends, who inform us with open hearts on how the situation is evolving as best it can on the battlefield; the alarming number of dead and wounded and to hear them say, nothing is promising on the M23-RDF side given the support forces on the ground and the losses they suffer there. Another no less reliable source remains the hospitals in the country of Rubavu; Musanze; Nemba; Kanombe; CHUK which daily receive the dead and wounded in an increasing number; hence the extent of the fighting.
4) Kagame’s discomfort noticed
During the mini-summit of the African Union held in Addis Ababa on the crisis in eastern DRC, President Kagame was surrounded by his close guard while the other neighboring presidents of Rwanda were relaxed; he did not greet his Congolese counterpart. Even if the signs on which were written “stop genocide in the east of the DRC” which welcomed him were quickly dismissed, he immediately felt uncomfortable and judged as a stopgap measure to cover his shame by bringing his guards closer. It is undoubtedly the psychological weight of the millions of deaths on his conscience that his wars have caused which haunts him and above all being aware that his counterparts know it.
5) Rwanda caught in his own trap?
If Rwanda denies its presence in the DRC, we wonder why it is it which diplomatically supports the position of the M23 rebels by acting as its spokesperson before the UN; the African Union when this movement, if it really autonomously exists, should be looking for its own representatives. Indeed, officially and in foreign languages, especially in English, the Rwandan authorities deny their presence within the M23 but in their speeches addressed to the Rwandan population they affirm that they are indeed in this vast country looking for natural resources to replenish the county’s coffers. Quite simply, all these AFDL rebellions; RCD; CNDP; AFC which have destabilized the DRC since 1996 are all Rwandan fabrications to lure the international community but on the ground facts are obvious as we see with our own eyes the traffic on the roads of northwest Rwanda blocked by hundreds of military trucks carrying Rwandan troops and heavy weapons rushing from Kigali towards the Rwandan-Congolese border areas. Worse still, Rwanda’s drones have just dropped two bombs on Goma airport, what additional evidence do we need?
Conclusion: diplomacy at the crossroads
Lukuta eyaka na elevator truth eyi na staircase kasi mpe ekomi, proclaimed the famous Congolese musician Koffi Olomide in his song “loi” literally the lie takes the elevator to arrive first but the truth goes upstairs but it also reaches its destination. Rwanda may lie that it does not support the M23 rebellion; that he does not plunder the natural resources of the DRC, his direct involvement falls on his head. On the one hand, observers on site, satellites, the Rwandan population, the Congolese population in the East, note the deployment of Rwandan soldiers on Congolese territory crossing the border posts with the DRC: Kabuhanga; Bugeshi; Busasamana; Cyanzarwe, etc. What can we say about the Rwandan prisoners of war captured on the front? On the other hand, a country without raw materials, Rwanda becomes the leading exporter of diamonds; copper; cobalt; coltan; lithium; gold while none of these precious metals is found in its subsoil. By burying its head in the sand, Rwanda has exposed itself to the international community, but the solution to the conflict lies in the hands of world leaders. Kagame is just a pawn of the United States and the United Kingdom: a phone call from Uncle Sam is enough to force him to immediately withdraw his troops.
