By David Himbara
Kenya continues to lead and outperform its partners in the East African Community. According to the World Bank 2017 data, Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by US$5 Billion from US$70 Billion in 2016 to US$75 Billion in 2017. Kenya’s per capita income increased from US$1,462 in 2016 to US$1,508 in 2017. This makes Kenya the only middle-income country in the East African Community. It is also worth noting that Kenya opened its US$3.2 Billion railway between the port city of Mombasa and the capital, Nairobi, in 2017.
The comparative performance of the region is shown below — with Tanzania the second best performer. Tanzania increased its GDP by the same margin as Kenya by US$5 Billion. Tanzania’s per capita income increased from US$878 in 2016 to US$936 in 2017 . Evidently, with a per capita income of US$936, Tanzania is nearly reaching the middle-income status of per capita of US$1,045. The next three years should see Tanzania joining Kenya to become East Africa’s second middle-income economy.
I have not included South Sudan — its data does not appear in the 2017 World Bank’s development indicators.
Comparative East African Gross Domestic Product, 2017
- Burundi’s GDP increased from US$3 Billion in 2016 to US$3.4 Billion in 2017 — an increase of US$477 Million.
- Kenya’s GDP increased from US$70 Billion in 2016 to US$75 in 2017 — an increase of US$5 Billion.
- Rwanda’s GDP increased from US$8.4 Billion in 2016 to US$9 Billion in 2017 — an increase of US$600 Million.
- Tanzania’s GDP increased from US$47 Billion in 2016 to US$52 Billion in 2017 — an increase of US$5 Billion.
- Uganda’s GDP increased from US$24 Billion in 2016 to US$26 Billion in 2017 — an increase of US$2 Billion.
Comparative East African Per capita income, 2017
- Burundi’s per capita income increased from US$285 in 2016 to US$320 in 2017 — an increase of US$35.
- Kenya’s per capita income increased from US$1462 in 2016 to US$1508 in 2017 — an increase of US$46.
- Rwanda’s per capita income increased from US$711 in 2016 to US$748 in 2017 — an increase of US$37.
- Tanzania’s per capita income increased from US$878 in 2016 to US$936 in 2017 — an increase of US$58.
- Uganda’s per capita income increased from US$580 in 2016 to US$604 in 2017 — an increase of US$24.
The case of Rwanda and its vision 2020
As is shown, Rwanda’s per capita income increased from US$711 in 2016 to US$748 in 2017 . This is further indication that President Paul Kagame’s Vision 2020 will remain a mirage. The purpose of Vision 2020 was to transform Rwanda into a middle-income country with a per capita income of US$1,240 by 2020. With three years left, Kagame would have to increase per capita from US$748 to US$1,240 — a difference of US$492. Based on the past performance, this is most unlikely to happen. In the past three years, Rwanda increased its per capita income from US$711 to US$748 — an increase of US$37.
