Who can win between Uganda and Rwanda at war?

These are the Military Statistics of both Countries;

Uganda: 41 Million
Rwanda: 11 Million

Uganda: $25.5 Billion
Rwanda: $8.3 Billion

Military Budget:
Uganda: $ 326Million
Rwanda: $93 Million3

Active Personnel:
Uganda: 46,000
Rwanda: 33,000

Uganda: 244
Rwanda: 34

Uganda: 53 (13 Fighter Jets, 10 Trainer Jets, 2 utility & surveillance, 28 helicopters)
Rwanda: 21 (All Helicopters)

Uganda: 11,000
Rwanda: Unknown

Fit For Service
Uganda: 8.1 Million
Rwanda: 1.6 Million

The factors that are not shown in those statistics include, military experience, ability to sustain a war, etc. The Uganda military (UPDF) is fighting in over five African countries including the volatile Somalia where they have a staggering 4,500 soldier force.

The Rwandan military (RDF) is also a well-organized force considering the fact that the country has just come from a major instability (the 1994 genocide) only two decades ago but Uganda military is better organized.

The question of where the conflict takes place (which country invades) could also be a determining factor. Rwanda is a much smaller country with a small city (Kigali) which works both as the Administrative and financial capital and is only 87KM from the boarder with Uganda (Katuna). If the UPDF were to invade Rwanda, they would definitely make use of the much better air force that Uganda has to first takeout Rwanda’s key infrastructure and military installations in the tiny and hilly Kigali city and then the infantry would move in. The 87KM from the boarder wouldn’t be much hard for an army of 46,000 with better equipment, more experience, more money and more reserves.

Uganda on the other hand, if Rwanda were to invade Uganda, the capital (Kampala) is 426KM (264 miles) from the border with Rwanda. This is the distance that the 33,000 soldiers of the RDF would have to cover before they can run the Uganda capital. Along that 436 Km journey, they would be facing an air force with 8 Russian Sukhoi-Su 30 Fighters/Bombers, 5 MiG-21, and over 28 attack helicopters, 46,000 soldiers, 244 tanks, 11,000 reserves, 8 million military-service-ready-citizens, etc. This would be a hard war to win for Rwanda.

Uganda has another advantage of geography over Rwanda. Most of Rwanda’s imports and exports go through Uganda to and from Mombasa, apart from those shipped by air. During war, Uganda would certainly halt these imports including the crucial ones like fuel. This would definitely complicate things for Rwanda and their ability to sustain the war would reduce.

Rwanda generally is country that punches way above its weight in economy, military and many other aspects but in a war with Uganda Rwanda would almost certainly lose. Uganda beats Rwanda in all key military aspects. More personnel, 9x more tanks, more fighter jets, more helicopters, etc. These factors plus being more experienced, more money, and better geography makes an armed conflict between Uganda and Rwanda very hard for Rwanda. We just hope such a war never happens as these two countries are literally sisters.

That’s my non-military expert analysis.