Former Congolese president Joseph Kabila has announced his intention to return to the Democratic Republic of Congo “soon,” starting with the eastern part of the country. The news, confirmed by RFI and Jeune Afrique, is raising questions about his true motives and the possible political consequences of his return.
After five years of silence, Kabila resurfaced briefly in February, warning that the country was “on the verge of collapse due to internal war.” In a written statement, he said he wanted to help find solutions to the deepening security and institutional crisis.
His comeback coincides with renewed efforts by Qatar to mediate peace talks between the Congolese government and the M23 rebel movement, which is backed by the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) led by Corneille Nangaa—once a close ally of Kabila. Kinshasa has repeatedly accused the former president of being one of the hidden hands behind the group.
President Félix Tshisekedi, who succeeded Kabila in 2019 in what was the country’s first peaceful transfer of power—though marred by allegations of fraud—recently declared that “Kabila is the real mastermind behind all of this.” Kabila rejected the accusation, stating that if he were truly involved with M23, “things on the ground would look very different.”
Officially, Kabila left the country after the December 2023 elections to pursue studies in Johannesburg, South Africa. However, his prolonged absence and activities abroad have continued to fuel suspicions, especially given his reported ties to rebel leaders.
The announcement of his return is stirring political debate in Congo. Kabila still commands significant support, especially in his home region of Katanga, but some suspect he may head to North Kivu—territory partially controlled by M23. According to Olivier Kamitatu, spokesperson for opposition leader Moïse Katumbi, Kabila’s decision to return to the East is “not just symbolic, it’s a sign of what lies ahead.”
If Kabila openly aligns with AFC/M23, it could undermine ongoing peace efforts led by Qatar and the African Union. It would also lend credence to Kinshasa’s long-standing accusations that he is behind the resurgence of armed conflict. On the other hand, should Kabila take on the role of a neutral mediator, his political weight could help facilitate dialogue between the rebels and the central government.
Analysts recall that a secret political deal allegedly existed between Tshisekedi and Kabila during the 2019 transition, which was reportedly violated by the current regime. Corneille Nangaa—now aligned with the AFC/M23—has confirmed the existence of that deal, though Tshisekedi’s camp denies it entirely.
Kabila’s return could shift the political landscape in the DRC. The question remains whether he seeks to relaunch his political career, act as a power broker, or support a new political project. His decision to return through the East is telling—but his ultimate intentions remain unclear.
Therwandan
